Layman's Climate Forecast

The layman's way of forecasting the climate

Lacking the sophisticated instruments and sources for weather data, you may still be able to project your own forecast. Become familiar with basic weather elements such as pressure signs, clouds, wind changes, etc. Learn how these indicators change before the weather does. A layman should beware of the climate statistics he sees in many tourist brochures. The climate will almost always be more severe than is evident from the quoted rainfall, temperature and sunshine figures.

All-important humidity figures are usually not given, and temperature figures may be averages over day and night, and well below (or above) actual normal maximum (or minimum) temperatures. Or they may represent recorded at 0600 or 1800 hours because these figures will look most attractive to visitors.

Something else you will not find easily is water temperature. Winter sun holidays are now extremely popular. A lot of people do not realize, however, that although the daytime air temperatures may be in the low 20's (°C), water temperature may only be about 5 to 15°C and swimming without a wet-suit is impossible. The sea takes longer to warm up than the land each summer. Conversely it takes longer to cool down in the autumn. Reckon on a lag between sea and land temperatures of about one and a half months. In Tunisia, the sea is a lot cooler in March than in October. But, by March air and land temperatures are already rising with the beginning of summer. They will reach their highest point in June/July, but the sea will take until August/September to be fully warmed up.

In winter, comfortably warm water is almost a certainty in the tropics, but more doubtful in the subtropics, and you should study year-round water temperatures. You may just decide to go in summer instead, even though it will probably cost more. In short, warm air and warm water don't always go together.

Familiarity with climate information, whether you rely on primary or secondary sources, will go a long way towards permitting you to get the most out of your next trip.